As summer winds down and we head into the desert’s much-anticipated shoulder season, it’s the perfect time to look at how the real estate market performed in Quarter 3 (July, August, and September). Traditionally, this is our low season—with fewer seasonal buyers in town, longer days on market, and more room for negotiation. But this year brought some unique shifts worth noting.
Quarter 3 Year-Over-Year Trends
Home Prices Hold Steady
Average sold prices have steadily climbed from $433,525 in 2018 to $792,842 in 2025. After a small dip in 2024, this year shows a modest rebound, signaling price stability in the desert market.
Buyers Have More Leverage
The sold-to-list ratio dropped to 93.76% in 2025, the lowest in recent years. This means homes are selling, but at larger discounts from asking prices—giving buyers more negotiating power.
Homes Taking Longer to Sell
Back in 2021, homes sold in just 31 days on average. In 2025, that number climbed to 72 days—the longest since 2018. This shift reflects more cautious buyers and more inventory sitting on the market.
Sales Volume Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Peaks
2020 saw a record 3,418 homes sold, fueled by pandemic demand. Since then, sales have slowed significantly, with just 1,683 homes sold in 2025. While that’s an improvement over 2023 and 2024, it’s still well below historic highs.
What’s Typical in the Desert’s Low Season
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Fewer Buyers in Town: Many snowbirds and second-home seekers are away during the summer heat.
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Serious Shoppers Only: Those who buy now are often relocating for work, making local moves, or investing.
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More Negotiation Room: Motivated sellers are often willing to adjust pricing.
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Slower Pace: Homes take longer to sell, which gives buyers more time and choice.
What’s Different This Year
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Prices bounced back after last year’s dip, showing the market’s resilience.
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Sellers have less leverage as the list-to-sold ratio hit its lowest point in recent memory.
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Buyers are stepping in, but carefully—taking advantage of longer market times and negotiating stronger deals.
What to Expect Heading Into Shoulder Season (October–December)
For Buyers:
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You’ll find better selection as more listings return in cooler months.
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Expect motivated sellers who may be open to price reductions or concessions.
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Buying now means less competition compared to peak season in early 2026.
For Sellers:
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Well-priced homes still move quickly—especially with snowbird buyers returning soon.
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The shoulder season is a great time to refresh your marketing and adjust pricing if needed.
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Listing in the fall positions you ahead of the busy winter market, when activity surges.
Bottom Line
Quarter 3 confirmed what we typically see during the desert’s low season: slower sales, more negotiation, and patient buyers. But with prices holding steady and activity beginning to recover, both buyers and sellers have unique opportunities as we transition into the shoulder season.
If you’re considering making a move, the next few months are an ideal time to get started—before the winter surge of buyers arrives.
Mike Z. Haque
Team Lead | eXp Realty DRE#01745484
(c) 760-808-5995 [email protected]
