In the Greater Palm Springs area, Quarter 4 is often misunderstood. While it’s commonly labeled as a “slow” period, the data from 2018 through 2025 tells a very different story. When paired with a full annual quarter-by-quarter overview, Q4 emerges not as a downturn—but as a strategic transition period that shapes pricing, inventory, and momentum heading into high season.
Annual Quarter Overview: A Predictable Desert Rhythm
When reviewing 2025 across all four quarters, the desert real estate market followed a familiar and highly predictable seasonal rhythm:
- Quarter 1 (Q1)
The strongest quarter of the year, driven by seasonal residents, second-home buyers, and peak winter demand. Pricing and competition are typically at their highest. - Quarter 2 (Q2)
Activity remains strong, often delivering the highest overall sales volume before the market begins its seasonal slowdown. - Quarter 3 (Q3)
The slowest quarter in the desert. Summer heat, reduced showings, and fewer seasonal residents lead to longer days on market and softer buyer urgency. - Quarter 4 (Q4)
The transition quarter. Activity begins to stabilize, pricing holds, and serious buyers start positioning themselves for winter purchases.
Despite slower transaction volume in the second half of the year, pricing remained resilient throughout 2025, reinforcing a key desert-market characteristic: this is not a distress-driven market. Many sellers are equity-rich and well-positioned to wait rather than discount.
Part Two: Quarter 4 Year-Over-Year Comparison (2018–2025)
While the annual cycle explains when activity slows and accelerates, the Q4 data from 2018 through 2025 explains how the market behaves during this critical window.
Q4 Pricing Trends: Stability Over Volatility
Quarter 4 average sold prices have increased steadily over the past eight years, rising from under $500,000 in 2018 to $866,836 in 2025. Even during periods of interest rate shifts and broader market uncertainty, Q4 prices rarely experienced sharp pullbacks.
This reinforces a defining trait of the desert market: many homeowners are second-home owners or retirees with substantial equity, not forced sellers.
Desert reality: Q4 pricing tends to stabilize, not collapse and often sets the baseline for Q1.
Days on Market: A Seasonal Pattern, Not a Warning Sign
Average Days on Market (DOM) consistently rise in Q4, typically landing in the 55–75 day range. This pattern appears year after year, with the exception of 2021’s historically tight inventory.
Higher DOM in Q4 reflects:
-
Fewer active buyers in the desert during fall
-
Buyers waiting for winter inventory
-
More intentional, slower decision-making
Homes priced correctly in Q4 often benefit from renewed momentum once winter buyers return.
Sold-to-List Price Ratios: The Negotiation Window
From 2018 to 2025, Q4 sold-to-list ratios consistently hovered in the mid-90% range, peaking during highly competitive years and softening slightly in more balanced markets.
This makes Q4 the most negotiable period of the year, particularly for buyers who value flexibility over bidding wars.
Sales Volume: Timing Matters More Than Demand
Total homes sold and overall dollar volume reliably dip in Q4 compared to spring and early summer. However, this decline reflects seasonal timing, not a lack of interest.
Many buyers intentionally wait until:
-
They return to the desert for winter
-
The holidays pass
-
New inventory enters the market in January
As a result, Q4 quietly builds demand that often surfaces in Q1.
What It All Means
When the annual market cycle and Q4 historical data are viewed together, the message is clear:
-
Q4 is not a slowdown-it’s a setup
-
Pricing remains firm even as volume tapers
-
Buyers gain leverage without sacrificing long-term value
-
Inventory carried into January becomes the foundation of high-season competition
In the desert, real estate success isn’t about reacting, it’s about understanding timing, seasonality, and strategy.
Quarter 4 doesn’t close the year.
It quietly opens the door to what comes next.
